基于效用理论的城市轨道交通运营管理优化策略

Optimization Strategy of Operational Management for Urban Rail Transit Based on Utility Theory

基于交通客流形成机理,分析了城市出行者交通需求产生和出行决策;提出了交通需要是交通需求的必要条件,出行者支付能力是交通需求的充分条件;认为出行决策是依据出行者效用最大化原则。基于效用理论的交通方式分担模型,讨论了城市轨道交通与常规公交竞争博弈机理。以广州市轨道交通为例,将时段客流分为高峰期、中峰期和低峰期3类,研究其交通客流特征。结果表明:在高峰期客流充足,城市轨道交通运输资源得到了充分利用;在平峰期和低峰期客流稀少,资源闲置。根据效用最大化理论,将分时段弹性票价运营策略和适当调整发车时间间隔策略运用于广州市轨道交通中峰时段,结果表明:实行综合优化策略的日客流量增加了14.9%。

The urban traffic demand and travel decision-making are analyzed based on formation mechanism of passenger flow.It is proposed that transport needs of the traffic demand are a necessary condition,and the payment ability of travelers for the traffic demand is a sufficient condition.It is thought that travel decisions are based on the principle of traveler utility maximization.The competitive game mechanism and sharing modes of transportation are discussed between urban rail transit and public bus based on utility theory models.Taking Guangzhou as a test example,it is found that the passenger flows are divided into the peak period,the middle period and the low passenger flow period.There are adequate passengers during peak period;the city transportation system capacity is fully utilized.The relative scarcity passengers appear during the middle and the low period,which result in transport capacity idle and waste.The operational optimization strategy of tickets price flexibility and appropriate time interval are proposed based on utility theory.The results show that the daily passengers have increased 14.9% in Guangzhou after the implement of comprehensive optimization strategy.