上海地区雷暴时空分布特征分析(英文)

Analysis on Features of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Thunderstorm in Shanghai

利用1971～2008年上海地区11个测站的逐日雷暴观测资料,利用统计分析软件SAS和Mann-Kendall突变检验和小波分析等方法,对上海地区雷暴的气候变化特征等进行了分析。结果表明,上海近38年来年均雷暴日为26.1d,年际变化幅度较大;年雷暴日呈显著减少趋势,倾向率平均为-0.4185d/10a,在2000年左右发生了减少性突变;各月都有可能发生雷暴,但主要发生在3～9月,占全年雷暴日数的96.4%,其中夏季雷暴日(6～8月)约占全年64.9%;从小波分析的结果看,上海地区雷暴具有3、5年的短周期和12、20年的长周期震荡变化。

Based in 11 daily weather observation station data in Shanghai from 1971 to 2008,a careful research and analysis on the features of thunderstorms spatial and temporal distribution and thunderstorm movement in Shanghai was carried out by using the statistical software of SAS,the method of Mann-Kendall test and wavelets. The results showed that the average annual numbers of thunderstorms days were 26.1,and inter-annual thunderstorm variability was obvious,the annual number of thunderstorm days had a decreasing trend,its value of decreasing days was about-0.418 5 d/10 a. Mann-Kendall test showed that there was an abrupt change in 2000. The seasonal variation of thunderstorm in Shanghai was explicit. The period from March to September was the season when thunderstorm occurred most frequently,about 64.9% of the thunderstorms in a year took place in summer. The results from wavelets analysis showed that the variation cycle period of the annual number of thunderstorms days was about 3,5,12 and 20 years.