摘要
利用2010年5～6月初中国南方持续暴雨资料,对K指数、低空急流的预报特征进行了分析。结果发现,K2对未来24h区域暴雨强度及落区预报具有较好的指示性、超前性和相关性,正相关系数达0.987;低空急流对未来24h区域暴雨强度及影响范围同样有较好的超前指示意义,相关系数达0.8以上。将K2和低空急流作为主要因子,建立了暴雨落区的基本概念模型。该模型已通过计算机程序,实现了业务自动化。其中,K2为暴雨强度和落区预报提供了重要依据。
By using the durative rainstorm data in South China during May-early June in 2010,the forecast characteristics of K index and low level jet were analyzed.The results found that K2 had the good indication,advancement and relativity on the intensity and falling zone forecast of regional rainstorm in future 24 h,and the positive relative coefficient reached 0.987.The low level jet also had the same advancement and indication significance on the intensity and influence scope of regional rainstorm in 24 h in the future,and the relative coefficient reached above 0.8.K2 and the low level jet were selected as the main factors,and the basic conceptual model of rainstorm falling zone was established.The model has passed the computer program and realized the business automation.K2 provided the important basis for the forecast of rainstorm intensity and falling zone.
关键词
K2
低空急流
预报特征
暴雨落区模型
K2
Low level jet
Forecast characteristics
Model of rainstorm falling zone
China
