摘要
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the variations of rainstorm frequency, intensity and period in the flood season in Guangzhou. [Method] Based on the daily precipitation data in Guangzhou City during 1951-2010, the interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics of rainstorm in the flood season in recent 60 years were analyzed by using the linear regression analysis, correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and so on. Moreover, the relationship between the rainstorm in the flood season and annual average temperature was analyzed. [Result] In recent 60 years, the rainstorm amount and days in the flood season in Guangzhou respectively increased with 6.23 mm/10 a and 0.27 d/10 a linear trends. The most rainstorm days (rainfall) was in 2001 and was 15 d (1 085.7 mm). There was no rainstorm in the least year (1990). The interannual variations of rainstorm amount and days in the flood season in Guangzhou obviously increased in recent 20 years. The decadal and interannual variations of rainstorm in the prior and latter flood seasons had the difference. The trend in the prior flood season increased and in the latter flood season slightly decreased. The positive correlation between the rainstorm days and the annual average temperature in the flood season in Guangzhou was significant, and the relative coefficient was 0.22, which passed α=0.02 significance level test. The total rainstorm days in the prior flood season in Guangzhou City mainly had 4.2-year interannual and 52.9-year interdecadal periodic variations. The total rainstorm days in the latter flood season mainly had 5.5-year interannual and 18.4-year interdecadal periodic variations. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the precipitation forecast in the flood season.
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the variations of rainstorm frequency, intensity and period in the flood season in Guangzhou. [Method] Based on the daily precipitation data in Guangzhou City during 1951-2010, the interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics of rainstorm in the flood season in recent 60 years were analyzed by using the linear regression analysis, correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and so on. Moreover, the relationship between the rainstorm in the flood season and annual average temperature was analyzed. [Result] In recent 60 years, the rainstorm amount and days in the flood season in Guangzhou respectively increased with 6.23 mm/10 a and 0.27 d/10 a linear trends. The most rainstorm days (rainfall) was in 2001 and was 15 d (1 085.7 mm). There was no rainstorm in the least year (1990). The interannual variations of rainstorm amount and days in the flood season in Guangzhou obviously increased in recent 20 years. The decadal and interannual variations of rainstorm in the prior and latter flood seasons had the difference. The trend in the prior flood season increased and in the latter flood season slightly decreased. The positive correlation between the rainstorm days and the annual average temperature in the flood season in Guangzhou was significant, and the relative coefficient was 0.22, which passed α=0.02 significance level test. The total rainstorm days in the prior flood season in Guangzhou City mainly had 4.2-year interannual and 52.9-year interdecadal periodic variations. The total rainstorm days in the latter flood season mainly had 5.5-year interannual and 18.4-year interdecadal periodic variations. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the precipitation forecast in the flood season.
