摘要
[Objective] The aim was to analyze one cold wave weather process in Chengdu in March in 2010.[Method] Based on the NCEP 1°×1° 6 h interval reanalysis data and daily observation data,using synoptic analysis and diagnosis methods,and combining with the cold wave forecast index in spring of Sichuan,a cold wave event covering the whole region between March 21 and 24,2010 was analyzed from the aspects of circulation background,influencing weather systems and weather causation.[Result] Results showed that the 500 high-altitude cold vortex,700-850 hPa low layer shear,and ground cold front were the main systems that influenced this cold wave;there was a ridge from Lake Balkhash across Lake Baikal at 500 hPa.The early stage of the process was controlled by the high pressure ridge and the temperature was increasing obviously.The daily mean temperature was high.The range of cold high pressure was large and the central intensity was 1 043.0 hPa;the cold air was strong and deep which was in accordance with the strong surface temperature reduction center.The strong north airstream of Lake Balkhash to Lake Baikal,ground cold high pressure center intensity changes,north and south ocean pressure and temperature differences,850 hPa temperature changes,cold advection movement route and intensity were considered as reference factors for the forecast of cold wave intensity.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for improving the forecast ability of cold wave weather.
[Objective] The aim was to analyze one cold wave weather process in Chengdu in March in 2010.[Method] Based on the NCEP 1°×1° 6 h interval reanalysis data and daily observation data,using synoptic analysis and diagnosis methods,and combining with the cold wave forecast index in spring of Sichuan,a cold wave event covering the whole region between March 21 and 24,2010 was analyzed from the aspects of circulation background,influencing weather systems and weather causation.[Result] Results showed that the 500 high-altitude cold vortex,700-850 hPa low layer shear,and ground cold front were the main systems that influenced this cold wave;there was a ridge from Lake Balkhash across Lake Baikal at 500 hPa.The early stage of the process was controlled by the high pressure ridge and the temperature was increasing obviously.The daily mean temperature was high.The range of cold high pressure was large and the central intensity was 1 043.0 hPa;the cold air was strong and deep which was in accordance with the strong surface temperature reduction center.The strong north airstream of Lake Balkhash to Lake Baikal,ground cold high pressure center intensity changes,north and south ocean pressure and temperature differences,850 hPa temperature changes,cold advection movement route and intensity were considered as reference factors for the forecast of cold wave intensity.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for improving the forecast ability of cold wave weather.
