基于水资源承载力的城市适度人口分析——以金华市为例

Analysis of optimum urban population based on water resources carrying capacity:Taking Jinhua city as an case

金华市目前水资源问题已成为制约其经济发展的因素之一,也限制其人口增长。在对金华市水资源承载力的定性及定量的研究的基础上,针对金华市人口增长的特征,利用灰色预测模型,对金华市适应城市发展的适度人口容量进行预测分析。结果表明:2020年金华市人口容量已超出水资源可承载的适度人口容量,提出控制人口规模;保护水资源和水环境;提高水资源的利用效率;建设新型节水城市等基本措施,为金华市今后的发展规划提供一定的参考。

Currently,water resources has become one of the factors to restrict the economic development of Jinhua City,it also limited the growth of Jinhua City's population.On the basis of qualitative and quantitative research for the carrying capacity of water resources in Jinhua City,and in the light of characteristics for Jinhua City's population growth,using the grey prediction model,the paper predicted and analyzed the suitable population capacity in Jinhua City,which adapted to the city development.It is found that the population capacity in Jinhua City will be exceed the water resources carrying capacity.We put forward some basic measures,as controlling the size of the population;protecting water resources and water environment;improving the water utilization efficiency;constructing the new water-saving city and so on.The measures can supply some reference for the future development of Jinhua City.