中国中部典型半湿润半干旱区近40年来气候变化特征

The climate change characteristics in typical semi-humid and semi-arid areas in central China during recent 40 years

以新密市为例对中国中部典型半湿润半干旱区近40年来的气候变化特征进行分析。针对新密市1971-2010年年、季平均气温、蒸发量及降水量采用线性倾向估计、累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验方法进行趋势变化及突变分析。得出近40年来中国中部典型半湿润半干旱区气候变化特征表现为年、季平均气温持续上升,年平均气温线性变化率为每10年0.44℃,平均气温约上升了1.8℃;年、季平均蒸发量反而呈波动式减少趋势;年平均降水量并没有明显的增加或减少趋势,各季节降水量变化趋势各异。这些变化特征与全球变暖背景下我国范围内整体的气候变化趋势基本一致,但是各季节气候特征的年代际变化稍有差异。

Characteristics of climate changes in recent 40 years in Xinmi City that locates in typical semi-humid and semi-arid areas within central China were analyzed.The muti-approaches included linear trend,accumulative departure curve and Mann-Kendall test method were used to analyze the trends and mutations by the annual and seasonal mean temperatues,evaporation and precipitation from 1971 to 2010.The results indicated that the annual and seasonal mean temperatures continually increased,and the average linear temperature change rate was 0.44 ℃/10a which meant annual average temperature increased 1.8℃ from 1971 to 2010,the annual and seasonal average evaporation decreased fluctuatly,annual precipitation had no significant increasing or decreasing trends and seasonal variations of precipitation trends were different from each other.These variations are consistent with climate changes in China under global warming sence,but decadal change of the seasons is slightly different.