渭北旱塬区典型测井地下水埋深的灰色预测研究

Research on the grey predication of groundwater depth of typical monitoring well in Weibei loess plateau

地下水埋深变化是地下水系统动态变化最主要的表现形式之一,通过预测地下水埋深分析地下水系统未来演变趋势,对合理开发、持续利用地下水资源有着重要的现实意义。本文选取2000-2010年渭北旱塬区的两个典型监测井的地下水埋深数据,用灰色GM(1,1)理论建立预测模型,并对该监测井的地下水埋深进行短期预测。经检验,该模型具有较高的预测精度,说明采用灰色理论预测渭北旱塬区监测井地下水埋深的方法可行。

The variation of groundwater depth is one of the most important reflection of dynamic change of groundwater system.The future evolution trend of groundwater system was analyzed by means of forecasting the groundwater depth,which had an important practical significance reasonable exploitation and sustainable using of groundwater resources.In this paper,the groundwater depth data of two typical monitoring well from 2000 to 2010 were collected in Weibei loess plateau so as to build GM(1,1) prediction model for groundwater depth prediction.The results showed that this model based on grey system theory had high prediction accuracy to forecast groundwater depth and was suitable to the Weibei loess plateau.