暴雨洪涝预报研究的若干进展

Research Progress on Storm and Flood Forecasting

暴雨洪涝灾害一直是威胁人类生存和发展的最严重的自然灾害之一。论文首先从经验模型,集总概念模型以及分布式模型等几个方面介绍了实时洪水预报技术发展与现状,然后从雷达估算降水(QPE)以及模式预报降水(QPF)2个方面回顾了现代气象技术对水文预报技术的推动,就目前的应用情况来看,数值天气预报模式与流域水文模型在时间空间分辨率存在差异是制约水文气象耦合的一个主要因素。接着,对中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所近年来在水文气象方面的工作做了一个简要的介绍。其中主要包括水文气象模型的研发与应用,水文气象耦合关键技术及预报试验,数值模式尺度下移方法初探,流域实时水文气象预报系统等。最后,论述认为进一步加强水文过程的机理研究,加强分布式水文模型与地理信息系统的耦合研究,加强与气象模型耦合的技术研究,加强并开展水文集合预报研究等四个方面显得尤为重要。

Storm flood disasters have always been a threat which is one of the worst natural disasters to human survival and development. Firstly, the development of real-time flood forecasting technique from experience model, lumped conceptual model and distributed mode were introduced. Secondly, the modern meteorological technology propelling the hydrological forecasting technology from both quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) were reviewed.This paper shows that the mismatch time and space resolution between numerical weather prediction models and hydrological models are the major factors of restricting hydrological and meteorological coupling. Thirdly, some hydro-meteorological work done by Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration in recent years were briefly introduced. The main work includes hydro-meteorological model research and application, the experiment of key technologies in hydrological and meteorological coupling, preliminary study of numerical model downscaling, real-time watershed hydro-meteorological forecasting system. Lastly, this paper holds that four kinds of work are particularly important. They are: strengthening the mechanism of hydrological process, strengthening the study of the distributed hydrological model and geographic information system coupling, strengthening the research on hydrological and meteorological coupling and strengthening the research into hydrological ensemble forecasting.