灰色预测在地下水位预测中的应用

The Gray Analysis of Xiaonanhai Spring Water Table

针对小南海泉域地下水位的预测影响因素多,数据量少,不确定性较大的特点,本文由实测的数据按照井号,每月为一组,由方差的已定范围来选择置信度,并求出灰度值,从而得出,灰色理论适用于地下水位的预测。然后,用GM(1,1)为预测模型对小南海泉域的地下水位进行了预测,每四个数据一组得到预测数据,对比原始数据与预测数据,其变化趋势基本一致,误差在允许范围内,用GM(1,1)模型进行地下水位的预测,能够得到较为准确的预测结果,可以应用于实际的预测工作。

Based on the groundwater level of the small South China Sea,domain for the many factors influence the forecast,the data is less,the characteristics of a large uncertainty,this gray value in the full account of the premise has been set by the variance of the range to select the degree of confidence.The results showed that the predicted water table can be associated with the gray theory model to predict.GM(1,1) model is the classic gray prediction model system,using this improved GM(1,1) model for small spring area of the South China Sea have the water table measured data to predict the time period.We compared to the measured data and prediction data,the trends are basically the same,the error is within the allowable range,so as to arrive at the water table of the forecasts for the theory of gray theory methods.So we using GM(1,1) model to make predictions,can be more accurate predictions.