SWAT模型在粮食产量预测中的应用

Application of SWAT Model in the Grain Production Forecast

以新乡县为研究对象,基于SWAT模型构建了该区域的分布式水文模型,并对影响模型的重要参数进行了率定和验证。结果表明,对比运用SWAT模型模拟得到粮食产量与实际粮食产量,其相对误差的绝对值大部分在10%以内,相关系数为0.84,Nash-Suttcliffe确定性系数为0.7,该模型可以较准确的模拟粮食产量,并能为该区域的粮食安全、水资源合理配置、水环境等方面的规划提供科学依据。

For Xinxiang as a case to study,the distributed hydrological model of the area was built based on SWAT model,and important parameters were also calibrated and verified for model.The results showed that the comparison of the SWAT model simulation results and the actual value,the most of absolute value of the relative errors are less than 10%,the correlation coefficient is 0.84,Ens is 0.7,so the model could more accurate simulate the grain production,and provides scientific basis for food security,water resources rational allocation and water environment.