中国滨海旅游城市入境旅游流量及潜力--基于旅游地引力模型的实证分析

A Research on the Tourists' Flow and Potential of the Seaside Tourism Destinations in China——An empirical study based on Crampon Model

在Crampon基本引力模型基础上,引入更多反映旅游地吸引力及两地点因素的变量,构建滨海型旅游地引力模型。用最小二乘法对2009年截面数据进行回归分析,结果显示:影响我国滨海旅游地引力的因素主要有客源地GDP、旅游地旅游从业人数、旅游地GDP、旅游地宣传促销努力程度、客源地与旅游地间的距离、文化认同感以及签证政策,而客源地人口数量和旅游地景区、酒店数量对游客流量解释力度不大。并利用回归方程估算各旅游地的旅游潜力进行测算,通过旅游流量实际值和潜力值的比较,将所有滨海型旅游地分为三类,每一类旅游地应根据分类选择相应发展对策。

Based on the simple gravity model of Crampon,this paper builds a gravity model of seaside tourism destination by introducing more variables that reflect the destination's attraction.This paper also makes a multiple linear regression using section data with the method of OLS.It shows many factors reflect the attraction of seaside tourism destination,such as GDP of the tourist-generating market and tourism destination,employments in tourism industry,sales promotion,the distance between two places,and so on.However,the populations of tourist-generating markets and the hotels or accommodations have nothing to do with the tourism flows.Then the tourism potential of every destination is measured.The destinations can be classified into three sorts and the paper gives advice for each sort of destination to achieve a more reasonable tourism flow.