德尔菲法中的数据统计处理方法及其应用研究

A Study of Data Statistical Processing Method of Delphi Method and Its Application

德尔菲法在实践中有着较为广泛的应用,但对其数据的统计处理方法主要局限于均值、标准差、变异系数等。而事实上,专家的判断依据、专家对问题的熟悉程度以及由此形成的专家权威程度对德尔菲法的调查结果有着重要影响,此外,专家意见的集中程度、协调系数及其统计检验也都是该方法在实际应用中应该考虑的问题。

Delphi method is widely used in practice,but its data statistical processing method is mainly limited in mean value,standard deviation and coefficient of variation etc.In fact,expert's judgment basis,their familiarity with the problem and the authority formed from it have had important influence on the survey outcome of Delphi.In addition,the intensity of expert's attitude,cooperation index and statistical test are all the factors that should be considered in practical application.