Z值模型在上市公司财务预警的实证分析——以广西上市公司为例

the Empirical Analysis of the Financial Forecasting of Z Model in Listed Company——The Case Study of Listed Company in Guangxi

文章对Altman上市公司财务失败预警模型(Z3模型)在我国广西上市公司中的应用进行了实证研究。从广西A股上市公司中选取6家ST、*ST和19家经营良好的公司作为样本,进行实证分析,结果表面z值模型对广西上市公司财务预警具有一定的有效性。在我国,具体运用z值模型时还应注意我国会计制度与国际惯例的距离,样本指标的畸变,财务报表真实客观性,企业政策等因素。

This paper conducts an empirical research on applying Altman's listed financial failure forecasting model(Z3 model) into the listed companies in Guangxi.With the samples of six ST and * ST and 19 well-established companies,which are included into A share listed companies in Guangxi,the empirical analysis shows that Z model has a certain effect on the financial forecasting of listed companies in Guangxi.In China,the difference between the accounting regulation and the international practice,the sample index distortion,the authenticity and objectivity of financial statement,and the enterprise policy should be considered,while making use of Z model.