摘要
本文从社会保障支出影响居民消费的角度出发,首先选取1989年至2008年的时间序列数据,进行单位根和协整分析,并在此基础上做了向量误差修正模型,对两个变量进行长短期关系分析。然后选取多变量进行实证分析,结果表明我国社会保障支出对居民消费支出起到正向促进作用,但作用比较微弱,同时城乡差距较大。最后在此基础上,提出相关政策建议,加快我国社会保障制度的健全和完善,使得社会保障真正起到推动居民消费的作用。
From the perspective of social security spending affecting consumers spending,the time series data from 1989 to 2008 was firstly selected,the unit root and co-integration analysis was used and vector error correction models were used to analyze the relationship between the two variables.And then multiple variable analysis were selected,results showed that China's social security expenditure has a weak positive effect on consumer spending,but the effect is weak,and there is large difference between city and rural area.Finally some policy recommendations were put forward based on the analysis to accelerate the strengthening and perfecting of the our social security system.The purpose is to let social security play a real role in promoting consumption.
