中国非CO_2类温室气体减排潜力及其政策意涵

Potential and Policy Implications of Non-CO_2 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in China

利用改进后的全球一般均衡环境模型(GTAP-E)及其6版非CO2类温室气体排放数据库,模拟了中国非CO2类温室气体减排潜力及其政策意涵。结果显示,现阶段,中国是世界上非CO2类温室气体排放最多的国家,2020年将会占到世界总排放的20%左右。其中,来自农业部门的非CO2类温室气体排放比重达到73%。未来10年,牛羊类、工业、服务行业的非CO2排放增速最快,且服务业的增速快于工业,并在2010年后超过工业排放。中国可以通过实施非CO2类温室气体减排政策,减轻二氧化碳减排的国际压力。虽然征收较高的碳税能够带来较高的非二氧化碳减排量,但是政策效率在高碳税和低碳税间差异不大。所以,在实施非二氧化碳减排碳税政策时,应该把碳税控制在一个较低的水平。

The improved GTAP-E model and the 6 th version of non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions database is used to simulate the emission reduction potential and policy implications of Chinese non CO 2 greenhouse gas.The results showed that China will become the country that has the maximum emissions of non-CO 2 greenhouse gas in the world in 2020,and will account for about 20% of the total emissions in the world.73% of non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions come from agricultural sector.The next 10 years,cattle and sheep sector,industry and service sectors will have the fastest increasing speed of the non-CO 2 green house gas emission,and the increasing speed of service sector grow faster than that of industry sector and will surpass industrial emissions in 2010.China could implement non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions policy to reduce the international pressure of CO 2 reduction.Although higher carbon tax levy will bring higher non-CO 2 emission reduction,the efficiencies of the policies between low carbon tax and high carbon tax have little difference.Therefore,when the policy of non-CO 2 emission reduction is implemented,it should be controlled at a reasonable level.