气象因素与发热伴血小板减少综合征发病关系的生态学研究(英文)

Ecological study on the relationship between meteorological factors and incidence of fever,thrombocytopenia and leukopenia syndrome(FTLS)

目的探讨气象因素与发热伴血小板减少综合征(FTLS)发病的关系。方法对信阳市2011年FTLS各月发病数进行描述性分析,对可能影响FTLS发病的月平均气压、月平均气温、月平均湿度、月平均风速度和月降水量进行单因素相关分析和多元逐步回归分析。结果FTLS发病与月平均气压呈负相关(P<0.01),与月平均气温、月平均相对湿度和月降水量呈正相关(P<0.05)。逐步回归法筛选出回归方程为:Y(月发病数)=-12.70+0.28 X2(月平均气温),决定系数R2=0.76。结论气温对FTLS发病有重要影响。

To explore the relationship between meteorological factors and incidences of fever, thrombocytopenia and leukopenia syndrome (FTLS), incidence data of FTLS in Xinyang City were collected and described. The relationship between FTLS and monthly meteorological factors such as average atmospheric pressure, average temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed and precipitation was analyzed with simple correlation and multi-stepwise linear regression. The results showed that there was a significant negative correlation between incidence of FTLS and monthly average atmospheric pressure (P<0.01), and there were significant positive correlations between monthly average temperature, monthly average relative humidity, monthly precipitation and incidence of FTLS (P<0.05). The multi-stepwise regression showed that the regression equation was Y (monthly cases) =-12.70 + 0.28X2 (monthly average temperature), and the coefficient of determination was 0.76. The incidences of FTLS are correlated with temperature.