西南水电开发及外送经济性研究

Study on Economics of South-West Hydropower Exploitation and Transmission

在水电开发重心逐步西移,水电投资不断上升的形势下,需要深入研究西南水电开发与外送经济性,以促进西南水电在东部负荷中心地区的高效消纳。结合未来西南地区水电投资水平及我国±800 kV特高压直流输电工程造价水平,测算了西南水电、特高压直流输电工程的财务可行电价,比较了水电到华东负荷中心地区的落地电价与华东火电标杆上网电价,并进行了不同水电投资水平的敏感性分析。研究显示:要使西南水电在华东负荷中心地区有价格竞争力,水电投资上涨空间非常有限;提高输电通道利用小时可提高水电电价竞争力。

With the hydropower exploitation center moving towards west,the investment is gradually increasing in recent years.In this situation,it is necessary to further study the economics of hydropower exploitation and transmission in southwestern regions in order to promote the accommodation of the hydropower in East China load centers.In the paper,the financial feasible prices of South-West hydropower and ±800 kV HVDC projects are calculated based on the future investment levels of South-West hydropower and HVDC projects.The receiving-end prices of South-West hydropower to East China load centers and the on-grid prices of coal-fired power in East China are compared,and the sensitivity analysis of different investment levels of hydropower is performed.Research results show that there is limited rising space for hydropower investment if the receiving-end price of hydropower is to be competitive.Besides,improving the utilization hours of transmission projects can enhance the competitiveness of hydropower.