降雨型滑坡经验性降雨阈值研究综述

Review of Research on Empirical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-Induced Landslide

为更好地对滑坡进行预测预报,将作为滑坡预警重要判据的经验性降雨阈值的研究现状进行分类总结,并结合滑坡产生机理加以评述。提出了经验性降雨阈值目前存在的问题是受客观统计资料影响较大、降雨强度的选择问题、地区性限制明显、如何进行前期降雨时间选择问题、前期降雨型式的考虑问题、降雨、滑坡的周期性对降雨阈值的影响。针对这些问题给出了建议:经验性降雨阈值应同滑坡产生机理密切结合、经验性降雨阈值应同环境地质背景紧密结合、完善降雨滑坡监测机制,灵活选取经验性降雨阈值。

In order to predict landslide better,this paper summed up the classification of research status of empirical rainfall threshold which be used as an important criterion of landslide early warning with the landslide formation mechanism.several current problems about empirical rainfall threshold were put forward: 1) the great influence by objective statistics susceptibility;2) rainfall intensity selection;3) obvious regional restriction;4) how to choose the span of antecedent precipitation;5) the patterns of antecedent precipitation;6) impact of cyclical rainfall and landslides on rainfall threshold.Then suggestions and outlooks were given in response to these issues: 1) empirical rainfall threshold should be integrated with landslide mechanism closely;2) empirical rainfall thresholds should be closely combined with environment and geological background;3) monitoring mechanism of rainfall-induced landslide should be improved and empirical rainfall threshold should be selected flexibly.