通货膨胀背景下的中国经济增长

China's Economic Growth under Inflation

当前我国物价水平仍然较高,与改革开放以来的前几次通货膨胀有所类似。本次通货膨胀的原因也可归结为中国传统增长模式中常出现的"两难困境",即长期以来,中国经济增长过度依赖于政府投资,银行信贷与货币的发放难以受到控制,经济高增长的同时始终存在着高通货膨胀的风险,而高通货膨胀所带来的企业生产成本的上升反过来又挤压企业经营利润,从而降低经济增长率。可以预计的是,在货币政策作用空间有限的背景下,此次通货膨胀的压力将持续一段时间。能否处理好总量和结构、抑制通货膨胀和促进经济增长的关系,关键取决于货币政策与财政政策的有机配合。

China's price indices begin to show a more substantial upward trend,its inflation pressure continues to grow.The inflation reflects China's traditional economic growth model has the 'dilemma': for a long time,China's economic growth is excessively dependent on government investment,making the issuance of bank credit and currency hard to control,while in high-growth economy there is always the risk of high inflation.In reverse,the increase of productive cost caused by inflation will not only extrude enterprise's profit,but also decrease economic growth rate.Because the role of monetary policy is limited in the context of quantitative easing in USA,China's inflationary pressures will continue for some time.To effectively prevent the 'stagflation' risk,China's central government should make its monetary policy and fiscal policy cooperate systematically.