基于新安江模型的大盈江洪水预报方法研究

Study on flood-forecasting method of Dayingjiang River based on Xin′anjiang Model

为了提高新安江模型的应用效果,根据云南省大盈江流域水文特征,采用三水源新安江模型对该流域降雨径流过程进行了模拟,并选择了有效、合理的参数。基于已有预报结果,验证了模型的合理性,分析了模型中6个主要敏感参数对洪峰及洪水过程线的影响。模拟结果表明:表层土壤自由蓄水容量主要影响峰值;蒸发皿折算系数对各时段洪量都有影响;出流系数决定着洪水过程线的线型;消退系数对洪峰及洪水过程线的影响不大。

In order to improve the application effect of Xin′anjiang Model,according to the hydrological characteristics of Dayingjiang River in Yunnan Province,the three-source Xin′anjiang Model was used to simulate the rainfall-runoff process of Dayingjiang River.The effective and reasonable model parameters are selected.Based on the recorded forecast results,the rationality of the model was verified and the influences of six main sensitive parameters on the flood peak and flood hydrograph were analyzed.The simulation results show that the main influence on the peak is SM;K determines the flood discharge in all periods;KG,KI determine the shape of the flood hydrograph;CG,CS have smaller influence on flood peak and flood hydrograph.