变化环境下典型内陆河出山口径流变异特征分析

Analysis of runoff variation at mountain-pass of a typical inland river under environment changes

内陆河流域的水资源演变规律一直备受关注。以天山北麓中段的玛纳斯河为典型研究对象,利用滑动平均法、Brown-Forsythe、R/S及Mann-Kendall检验法,对玛纳斯河52 a年径流序列进行了初步诊断、详细诊断与综合诊断,最终判定1987年为该河年径流的变异点。通过分析其物理成因认为,气候变化是导致年径流变异的主要驱动因素。通过小波分析,证明玛纳斯河年径流在演变过程中存在周期性变化规律。变异前后的水文情势分析表明,在气候变化影响下,流域水循环存在加速的可能性。

Water resources evolution of inland river basin has always attracted a lot of attention.Manas River in middle section of north slope of Tianshan Mountain is selected as a typical research subject.Four test methods,including moving average method,Brown-Forsythe test method,R/S test method and the Mann-Kendall test method are adopted to study 52 years of annual runoff sequences of Manas River.Through initial diagnosis,detailed diagnosis and comprehensive diagnosis,it is determined that 1987 is the variation point of annual runoff.Through physical cause analysis,it is revealed that the main driving factor that leads to variation is the climate change.On the basis of wavelet analysis,it is shown that a periodic change exists in the evolution of annual runoff of Manas River.The research of hydrological regime before and after the variation shows the possibility of acceleration of water cycle.