上海市台风风灾风险评价

Risk assessment of wind disaster caused by typhoon in Shanghai

基于1949～2009年历史资料,探究了上海市台风风灾的演变规律及其主要特征,同时在GIS平台下分析了台风大风危险性、承灾体脆弱性,并对台风风灾风险进行评价。分析及评价结果表明:上海台风主要有西行类和近海北上类,台风频数的年际变化不大,但强度有变化,12级以上的台风频数有所增加,影响时间主要集中在7～9月;台风风灾风险空间差异显著,处于滨海地带的浦东、奉贤、金山的危险性等级为严重,宝山、嘉定、闵行和杨浦为中等,其他区及崇明县为一般;金山、嘉定脆弱性最高,崇明县最低。研究结果为上海市台风防灾减灾提供了基础资料。

Based on the historical data from 1949 to 2009,we analyze evolution laws of wind disaster caused by typhoon in Shanghai,and summarize the characteristics of the wind disaster.The hazard and vulnerability of wind disaster are analyzed under GIS platform and the risks are assessed.The results show that the typhoon paths influencing Shanghai are mainly offshore northward and westward,the number of typhoon changes little yearly,but typhoon intensity varies and the typhoon larger than 12 degree has increased which mainly occurs from July to September;the spatial distribution difference of risks is significant,the offshore districts of Pudong,Fengxian and Jinshan are in severity,Baoshan,Minhang,Jiading and Yangpu are in medium,others are in common.Disaster vulnerability degrees of Jinshan and Jiading are the highest and Chongming is the lowest.The research results provide the basic data for disaster prevention and reduction of Shanghai City.