基于改进突变理论评价法的农业用水效率评价

Evaluation on agricultural water utilization efficiency based on catastrophe theory

为了分析湖北省农业用水效率变化情况、用水现状及未来节水农业的发展方向,构建了农业用水效率的评价指标体系,采用改进的突变理论评价方法对湖北省2001～2010年的农业用水效率进行了综合评价。结果表明,对于农业用水效率这一非连续变化的复杂体系,基于突变理论的综合评价克服了权重确定方法的主观性,提高了综合评价值的分辨率,评价结果更符合实际。分析表明,过去10 a中,湖北省农业用水效率经历了一个不平稳的上升过程,目前仍处于中等微偏上水平,还有相当大的上升空间。

In order to analyze the variation condition of agricultural water utilization efficiency,water utilization state quo and future development direction of water saving agriculture,an evaluation system of agricultural water utilization efficiency is established and the improved catastrophe evaluation method is adopted to evaluate agricultural water utilization efficiency in Hubei Province from 2001 to 2010.The results show that,as a non-continuous changing complex system,the comprehensive evaluation based on catastrophe theory can overcome the subjectivity when determining weight coefficient.Besides,improved catastrophe evaluation method increases the resolution of the comprehensive evaluation results,which makes it more practical.Analysis shows that in the past 10 years,agricultural water utilization efficiency in Hubei Province is unsteadily improved,at present,it is still in medium(slightly to the upper) level,and there is considerable room for development.