一种森林火险预报方法研究——以山东省为例

A Study on Forest Fire Forecast Method——Taking Shandong Province as an example

可燃物含水率、空气温度、相对湿度、人口密度是林火预报中重要因子,将这些因子构建综合火险指数模型,该模型包括三个部分:植被火险敏感指数(FSI)、归一化天气火险指数(NWDI)、人口火险概率指数(PDI)。详细介绍模型各部分的计算方法,将该模型与遥感、GIS相结合,开发综合森林火险指数预报系统,制作2010年10月～2011年9月山东省综合火险指数图,并与实际火灾发生情况进行对比,结果表明,该模型能够取得较好的预测结果。

Fuel moisture,air temperature,relative humidity,density of population are important factors in forest fire forecast.These factors construct a comprehensive fire danger index model,the model includes three components: vegetation fire sensitivity index(FSI),normalized weather index(NWDI),population fire probability index(PDI).This paper detailedly introduced the calculation method of various parts of the model,integrated the model,remote sensing,and GIS,developed the comprehensive forest fire danger index forecasting system,produced the Shandong Province comprehensive fire danger index map from October 2010 to September 2011,and compared to the actual fire.The results show that the model can achieve better prediction results.