我国货币政策的就业结构效应分析

On the Monetary Policy Structure Effect of Employment in China

合理化就业结构是加快产业升级和经济结构转型的最高保障,也是解决我国失业问题、提高我国就业总量的一个必经之路。文章认为,货币政策存在就业结构效应。无论是产出渠道还是技术进步渠道,货币政策就业结构效应最终都是通过投资渠道进行传导的。通过分析贷款基准利率R与固定资产投资额以及贷款基准利率R、货币供给增长率RM2与各产业就业量之间的实证关系对货币政策影响就业结构进行研究,发现我国存在货币政策就业结构效应。扩张性货币政策有利于减少第一产业就业量,不利于第三产业就业量的增加。因此,提出实行差别化的货币政策来实现合理的就业结构。

Rationalizing the employment structure is the highest safeguard in speeding up the industrial upgrading and the transformation of economic structure,and the only road to solve the question of unemployment and to enhance the total employment of China.Through theoretical analysis and proof,this article infers that monetary policy exists the employment structure effect.Regardless of through the channel of output or the channel of technological progress,the monetary policy transmits the employment structure effect through investment channel finally.Through analyzing the empirical relationships between benchmark interest rate of loan-R and fixed assets investment,and the empirical relationships between benchmark interest rate of loan-R,the growth of money supply-RM2 and the employment amount of each industry,this article discovered that monetary policy exists employment structure effect in China,the expanding monetary policy is beneficial to reduce the employment quantity of primary industry,and goes against increasing employment quantity of the tertiary industry.So,it proposed the differentiated monetary policy which realizes the reasonable structure of employment.