摘要
利用蒙特卡罗法对电能生产过程进行模拟,并在此基础上分析电能生产边际成本。模拟过程考虑了负荷的不确定性、常规机组的随机强迫停运和风电出力的随机性。算例分析结果表明,风电接入会降低电能生产边际成本,其下降程度与风电场容量以及风况均有密切的关系。
Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to simulate the process of power energy production,in which uncertainty on load,forced outage of conventional generators and unsteady performance on wind power generation are considered.Simulations on a case system demonstrate that the incorporation of wind energy will reduce the marginal-cost of power generation,and the extent of marginal-cost reduction is highly dependent on both wind power installed capacity and wind conditions on wind farm site.
出处
《电网与清洁能源》
2012年第9期62-67,共6页
Power System and Clean Energy
基金
国家自然科学基金(61104028)
南通大学杏林学院科研基金(2010k115)
南通市科技局应用研究项目(Bk2012051)~~
关键词
蒙特卡罗模拟
风电
边际成本
强迫停运
Monte Carlo simulation
wind power
marginal-cost
forced outage
