内蒙古数值天气预报集成方法初探

Research on the Integrating Methods of Numerical Weather Prediction in Inner Mongolia

内蒙古气象台业务使用的降水量数值预报产品有:T213、T639、MM5、日本、德国数值预报场。各模式的预报准确率有较大差异。利用常规高空、地面观测资料和不同数值预报产品资料,在检验多个业务数值预报模式降水预报准确率基础上,借鉴集合预报新技术,完成对内蒙古数值预报集成试验。逐日滚动评定各种模式预报质量,优选高质量的模式作为集成对象,建立针对内蒙古降水的集成预报方程,并根据不同模式的预报准确率,动态分配预报方程的权重系数。

T213、T639、MM5 numerical prediction productions from Japan or Germany have been applied in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatory for operation services.However,large forecast accuracy differences exist in their operational modes.This paper takes utilization of numerical data collected from comprehensive sources and inspects the forecast accuracy of different operation NWP models.Then,it presents a new numerical integration method and implements experiments for Inner Mongolia weather forecast.By evaluating the daily forecasting qualities from various models and selecting the highest ones as integration objects,can establish the precipitation integration forecast equations for Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Also it can dynamically adjust the weights coefficients of the equation according to the different models' predication accuracy for better predication results.