辽宁省碳排放增长的驱动因素分析——基于LMDI分解法的实证

The Drivers of CO_2 Emission Growth in Liaoning Province:an Empirical Research Based on LMDI

文章基于1995～2007年辽宁省分行业能源消费数据,计算了辽宁省能源消费的碳排放量,并采用对数平均Divisia指数分解法对碳排放增长的驱动因素进行了分析。结果发现,经济规模的扩大是辽宁碳排放增加的决定性因素,产业结构的重型化也起到了一定的增排作用;能源效率的提高在很大程度上抑制了碳排放增长,而能源替代效应对碳排放抑制作用不明显。因此,要在保持经济快速增长的同时兼顾节能减排,必须大力调整产业结构,提高能源效率,优化能源消费结构。

Based on the 1995 to 2007 industrial energy consumption data in Liaoning Province,the paper calculated the CO_2 emissions of energy consumption each year,and analyzed the drivers of CO_2 emission growth using the method called logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI).It is found that the expansion of the economy scale is a decisive factor of CO_2 emission growth in Liaoning;heavy-duty industrial structure also plays a role in the increasing of carbon emissions;the improvement of energy efficiency can reduce the CO_2 emissions to a large extent,and the effect of energy substitution on the reduction of CO_2 emissions is not obvious.Therefore,to maintain the rapid economic growth while taking energy conservation into account,we must make industrial structure adjustment,improve energy efficiency and optimize energy consumption structure.