产业结构与城市化互动关系的实证检验

Empirical Study of the Interactive Relationship between Industrial Structure and Urbanization

产业结构调整和城市化是经济发展过程中的两个中心主题。文章以1978～2008年我国三次产业的产值比重、就业比重和城市化率的统计数据为样本,对产业结构与城市化之间的互动关系进行了实证研究,结果表明,我国城市化与第一、二产业的产值结构和第一、二、三产业的就业结构存在着长期均衡关系,而与第三产业的产值结构不存在长期均衡关系;城市化率与三次产业的就业比重存在着单向因果关系,城市化推进是第一、二产业就业比重变化的原因,第三产业就业比重的增加是城市化水平提高的原因。

Taking the output value and employment proportion of the three industries and urbanization statistics from 1978 to 2008 as samples,an empirical research is conducted on the interactive relationship between industrial structure and urbanization.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the urbanization in China and the output value structure of the primary and secondary industries,and between the urbanization and the employment structure of the primary,secondary,and tertiary industries.However,there is not a long-term equilibrium relationship between the urbanization and the output value structure of the tertiary industry;moreover,there exists a unidirectional causality relationship between the urbanization and the employment structure of the three industries.The promotion of urbanization contributes to the changes of the employment proportion of the primary and secondary industries,and the increase in the employment proportion of the tertiary industry contributes to the promotion of the urbanization.