近代中国50年居民消费数据估计(1887～1936)

An Estimate of 50 Years’ Time-Series Data of Consumption in Modern China (1887-1936)

本文通过分析影响中国近代消费需求的各种因素,建立起中国近代消费需求的理论函数,然后选取前辈学者收集或估算的相关数据,建立起中国近代的消费需求数量模型,根据这一数量模型,估算了1887~1936年的消费需求时间序列数据,并从贸易差额的角度对其做了验证。

This paper sets out to formulate a consumption function by analyzing all kinds of factors in influencing consumer demand in modern China.It then selects the relevant data that predecessors collected or estimated,and therefrom establishes a consumer demand model for measuring quantitatively the consumption of modern China.Based on this model,it estimates the time-series data of consumer demand from 1887 to 1936;and finally verifies the estimated data with the trade balance.