基于遗传神经网络的电力系统负荷预测研究

The research about the forecasting of power system load based on the method of genetic neural network

在国内外学者的研究工作基础上,综述了BP神经网络及遗传算法在电力系统负荷预测中的应用,并研究了两种方法在电力负荷预测中的综合应用问题,结合实际的乌兰察布电力系统运营数据,对其进行了分析预测。得到了几天至十几天乌兰察布市的电力系统负荷预测的数据,并对这一实证结果进行了经济和管理意义上的分析。实证预测结果为乌兰察布电力有关部门电网运行的制定和企业近期经营方式提供了新的思路,具有较好的理论和实际应用价值。

Based on the research work of scholars at home and aboard,the paper summarize currentsituation of BP neural network genetic algorithm in the power system load forecasting,and the comprehensive application of the two methods in this field.Then we have the quantitative analysis and forecasting to thecomprehensive application with the use of actual data of ulanchap and obtain the conclusion of power system load forecasting of ulanchap in next four years.Have the economic and management analysis to the demonstration result.Forecasting results provides new ideas for ulanchap relevant departments when policy of power is formulate and enterprise future development plan is made,which has a good theory and practical application value.