崩塌灾害危险性评价方法及应用

Rockfall Hazard Assessment Method and Its Application

基于RocFall数值模拟软件,划定落石威胁范围。危岩的自稳能力和致灾能力是导致崩塌具有危险性的两个先决条件,据此遴选崩塌灾害危险性评价指标,通过计算各指标的灰色关联系数,进行相对重要性排序,结合层次-集对分析法求解评价指标的权重值,基于综合指标评价法建立崩塌灾害危险性评价方法,并根据最危险原则法将崩塌区分为极高危险、高危险、中危险和低危险4个等级。将此方法应用于巫山望霞危岩,评价得出望霞危岩属于高危险,与实际情况吻合良好。

The rockfall threat range is determined by use of numerical simulation software of RocFall.The homeostatic capacity and disaster capacity are two prerequisite,which demonstrated rockfall is dangerous.Based on these,the assessment indexes of rockfall risk are selected.Through the calculation of grey correlation coefficient,the relative priority order has been obtained.The generalized set pair analysis and analytic hierarchy process method are combined to obtain the assessment index weight of hazard risk.Through the multi-index assessment method,the assessment of rockfall has been established.According to the most dangerous principle,the rockfall zone is divided into four ranks,which are extremely high risk,high risk,medium risk and low risk respectively.This proposed method was applied in Wangxia rockfall of Wushan,which showed that Wangxia rockfall of Wushan was high risk.The assessment results fit well with the actual situation.