基于GM(1,1)模型预测磨盘山水库水质变化趋势

Predicting Variation Trend of Water Quality of Mopanshan Reservoir with GM(1,1) Model

GM(1,1)模型在水质预测中得到了较为广泛的运用。本文应用GM(1,1)模型对磨盘山水库中总氮和总磷两项指标的浓度变化趋势进行了预测,结果表明:总氮浓度呈上升趋势,总磷浓度呈下降趋势。本文将为制定磨盘山水库水质改善方案提供科学依据。

GM(1,1) model has been widely used in the prediction of water quality.In this paper,we predicted the variation trend of TN and TP concentration in Mopanshan reservoir.The results showed that the concentration of TN increased while the TP decreased.The results can provide basis for the water quality improvment in Mopanshan reservoir.