基于动态故障树的导弹驾驶仪系统可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of missile autopilot system based on dynamic fault tree

导弹驾驶仪系统的可靠性是影响整个导弹任务成功的重要因素。由于该系统构成复杂且部件故障具有动态特性,传统的故障树分析方法很难描述系统失效的动态机制。为此,首先建立了某驾驶仪系统的动态故障树;然后根据部件测试和维修过程中的不确定状态按照一定的概率转化为可维修和不可维修的部件,从而对系统进行可靠性分析。在求解过程中,为了避免马尔科夫链应用中存在的组合爆炸问题,将蒙特卡洛方法应用于动态子树的求解中。仿真结果表明,上述方法可以对复杂、动态系统进行可靠性分析。

The reliability of the autopilot system is the key factor to determine whether the tasks of missile can be successfully completed.Due to the complexity of the system structure and dynamic characteristics of the components,traditional fault tree analysis is difficult to clearly describe the dynamic behavior of system failure mechanisms.This paper,firstly,establishes the dynamic fault tree of the autopilot system;then based on the feature of state uncertainty in the process of test and maintenance,the component is considered to be translated into repairable and non-repairable according to certain probability,so as to do reliability analysis.In the solving process,the Monte Carlo simulation method is applied to solve the dynamic sub-tree in order to avoid the disadvantages caused by Markov Chain.The result shows that Monte Carlo method is available for reliability analysis of the complex and dynamic system.