逆周期资本监管的困境、缺失及出路

Dilemma,Missing and the Way out of Counter Cyclical Capital Regulatory

逆周期资本监管尽管能从资本缓冲、风险资产计量两个层面遏制信贷顺周期,但由于经济周期难以被准确预测,使得在逆周期资本缓冲积累和释放的时机选择上存在一定的困难;逆周期资本监管未能考虑资本及拨备计提实际是在利润与风险控制之间的平衡。资本监管只有连同外部市场约束和完善的内部公司治理才能有效抑制信贷顺周期及其带来的系统性风险。

Despite the countercyclical capital regulation curbs credit pro-cyclicality from capital cushion and measurement of risky assets,the difficulty to predict accurately the economic cycle makes the timing of the accumulation and release of countercyclical capital buffer a hard nut to crack;Countercyclical capital regulation fails to take into account the fact that the capital and provision is actually in the balance between profits and risk control.Regulatory capital only in conjunction with the external market constraints and the internal corporate governance can suppress effectively credit cycles and its incurring systemic risk.