天津金融业增加值现状及其预测研究

Empirical Study on Value Added of Financial Intermediation and Its Prediction

滨海新区金融业创新,前瞻性地顺应了后危机时代全球金融业支持和服务实体经济的新形势。用自回归移动平均模型可定量分析和预测未来金融增加值及其占GDP的比重,从预测结果看,"十二五"期间天津金融业增加值将呈现出较快的增长趋势,金融业增加值占天津GDP的比重将稳步提升。

Since the development and opening of Tianjin Binhai New Area into national strategies,Tianjin relying on high-speed development of the real economy,and actively promote the financial reform and innovation.Financial innovation of Binhai New Area,proactively adapt to the trend of global financial industry to support the real economy in the era of post-crisis.In this context,this paper used ARMA model to predict the financial added value and its share in GDP in the future.The predict results reflect that the financial added value of Tianjin would increase quickly in process of 12th five years planning,and then the financial added value’s share in GDP will increase gradually.