中国地区经济增长对碳排放强度的影响——基于空间面板模型的分析

The Impacts of China's Regional Economic Growth on Carbon Emission Intensity : Based on the Analysis of a Spatial Panel Model

本文选取1998～2010年间我国30个省、直辖市和自治区的面板数据,通过选择合适的空间面板计量模型实证研究本地经济增长对碳排放强度区域差异的直接影响,以及相邻地区经济增长对本地碳排放强度区域差异的空间溢出效应。实证结果表明:中国省际碳排放强度存在显著的非均衡特征和空间关联性,碳强度由东到西逐渐增加,且东、西部有明显的分块特征;我国地区经济增长和碳排放强度呈现""型特征,地区经济增长对碳排放强度区域差异是积极影响或消极影响取决于地区经济增长的不同阶段和政策路径选择;各省市区碳排放强度曲线"∧"部分的拐点存在明显阶段差异性,因此在确定各省区碳减排政策时,应当针对各省区特定的发展阶段和发展趋势决定政策的实施和力度。

Using apanel data of 30provinces in China during 1998-2010 , this study empirically examined the direct effects of local economic growth on the regional difference of carbon emission intensity as well as the spatial spillover effects of neighboring regions economic growth on the regional difference of local carbon emission intensity.The results show that China's provincial carbon emission intensity has distinct characteristics of imbalance and space correlation , the carbon intensity gradually increases from east to west , eastern and western regions have obvious block feature.China's regional economic growth and carbon emission intensity present as ' ' , whether the effects of regional economic growth on the regional difference of carbon emission intensity is positive or negative is determined by the different stages of regional economic growth and different choices of policy.In addition , the inflexion of ' ∧ ' has clear stage difference , so that the implementation and force of carbon emission reduction policy should be determined according to the special development stage and trend of each province.