基于供求关系的中国碳交易价格决定机制研究

Research on China’s Carbon Price Mechanism Based on Demand-Supply Relationship

文章通过对中国碳交易市场需求与供给、国际配额市场价格以及政府限价等因素的分析,建立中国碳交易价格决定机制模型,并运用计量经济分析方法进行实证检验。结果表明:中国碳交易市场CDM的价格与伦敦国际石油交易所的原油期货价格呈显著的正相关关系;中国碳交易市场CDM的价格与联合国对中国CDM项目的 CER签发率呈微弱的负相关关系;中国碳交易市场CDM的价格与欧洲气候交易所的EUA期货价格具有显著的正相关关系。

China’s carbon trading market price was affected by the demand and supply of carbon,the price floor,as well as some other factors.The model was established aiming at analyzing how these factors affect China’s carbon trading market price.The econometric analysis was used in this study.The result shows that China’s carbon price has a significant positive correlation with the crude oil futures price of International Petroleum Exchange in London.China’s carbon price has a weak negative correlation with the CER issuance rate of China’s CDM projects issued by the United Nations.Chinese carbon market follows the laws of supply and demand.In addition,EUA futures price of European Climate Exchange has a great influence on China’s carbon price.