含缺陷主蒸汽管道的失效可能性分析

Failure Probability Analysis of Main Steam Pipe Containing Defects

将单轴蠕变试验、紧凑试样试验得到的材料常数视为随机变量,考虑高温主蒸汽管道运行压力的波动规律,通过对处于高温条件下裂纹萌生和扩展的深入研究,提出电厂高温蒸汽管道失效可能性数学模型,通过Monte carlo方法计算得到初始裂纹检测结果的失效概率。给出了失效概率计算的应用实例,验证了此方法的适用性,为含缺陷高温主蒸汽管道失效可能性评估提供参考。

The mathematical model of failure probability of main steam pipe in power plant is founded by conducting thorough research on crack initiation and growth,considering uniaxial test constants and compact tension constants as random variables.An application example of failure probability evaluation of main steam pipe containing initial defect is conducted in this paper,using monte carlo method to confirm applicability of this model.The foundation of this model provides scientific basis for failure probability evaluation for main steam pipe containing initial defect.