复杂系统安全事故致因分析的“认知-约束”模型

Cognitive Constraint Model in Complex System Safety Accident Causation Analysis

随着系统复杂程度的提高,传统的针对机械系统或者机电系统事故致因的"因果事故链"模型对于复杂系统的事故分析显得难以胜任。在对现有事故致因理论及模型进行概述分析的基础上,提出了适用于复杂系统事故分析的"认知-约束"模型,通过分析文献中的事故连锁模型和博帕尔泄露事件,验证了"认知-约束"模型的实用性。最后提出基于机器学习方法和重要节点牵连控制方法的复杂系统崩溃控制策略。研究结果表明预防复杂系统安全事故需要强化安全认知能力,并发展有效的安全控制策略。

With the improvement of system complexity,the traditional cause-effect accident chain model which originally aims at mechanical system or mechanical-electronic system can't be competent for the complex system.On the basis of analyzing the existed accident causation theory and model,the cognitive constraint model,competent for the complex system is raised,after analyzing the accident chain model and Bhopal release accident,the practicability of the cognitive constraint model is verified.Finally the complex system collapse control strategy based on machine study method and important node implication control method is put forward.The result shows that the safety cognitive ability should be consolidated in preventing the complex system safety accident and the effective safety control strategies should be developed.