中国消费率低估研究——兼议中国“投资过热论”

On the Underestimation of China's Consumption Rate:Discussion on High Demand for Investment in China

中国消费率偏低是传统理论普遍接受的观点,从这一点出发,引致出中国经济增长投资依赖症、中国经济崩溃论等结论。通过分析影响消费率的主要因素,将这些因素指标化后进行国际比较分析,可以得出中国消费率并非偏低而是被低估的结论。中国消费率被低估的原因来自于公共投资腐败、服务性消费低估、企业逃税行为及信用体系落后等几个方面。消费率被低估的结论,能够支持我们重新认识中国投资依赖症和中国经济崩溃论的观点。基于调整后的更高的消费率和更低的投资率,投资依赖症的观点不攻自破。

China's low consumption rate is a generally accepted view by traditional theories.The propositions of excessive dependence of Chinese economy on investment and the doomed collapse of Chinese economy both stem from China's low consumption rate.This paper makes an analysis of the determinants of consumption rate and a comparison of these determinants world wide and argues that China's consumption rate has been underestimated.The reasons for the underestimation of the consumption rate include public investment corruption,underestimation of service consumption,tax evasion by enterprises,and faulty credit system.Our findings could help us counterattack the arguments of investment over-dependence and ultimate collapse of the Chinese economy.