山东省第三产业发展对城乡协调影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Tertiary Industry Development on Urban-Rural Coordination in Shandong Province

以第三产业发展为切入点,以促进城乡协调为目标,采用主成份分析法,对山东省17地市2008-2010年的城乡数据和第三产业数据进行实证分析,研究结果显示:山东省17地市第三产业发展与其城乡发展并不同步。运用1982-2010年的数据,对第三产业发展与城乡协调的指标进行协整检验,得出研究结论:山东省人均第三产业增加值对城乡空间发展度存在正向积极的影响,济南市服务密度的增加对城乡空间发展度的提高存在显著的正向积极影响,青岛市第三产业发展与城乡协调间不存在唯一协整关系。因此,应该优化青岛、烟台等地市的第三产业内部结构、发展现代服务业以促进城乡协调。

The paper applies the principal component empirical analysis to tertiary industry data and rural-urban data of the 17cities in Shandong province from 2008to 2010,with the purpose of promoting urban and rural coordination.The findings suggest that tertiary industry development has not been in pace with developments in other areas.Applying cointegration test to tertiary industry development indicators and urban-rural coordination indicators,we come to the conclusion that tertiary industry value added per capita in Shandong is positively correlated with the urban-rural spatial development.It is also found that increase in service intensity in Ji'nan city has a significantly positive impact on urban-rural spatial development.In addition,there is no unique cointegration relationship between tertiary industry development and urban-rural coordination in Qingdao city.In light of the findings,the paper puts forward some measures to promote urban-rural coordination via tertiary industry development.