能源消耗与经济增长的关系分析——基于辽宁省时间序列数据

Analysis on the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Based on Time Series Data of Liaoning Province

辽宁省是能源资源消耗大省,其经济增长对能源消耗的依赖程度一直较高。通过采用协整回归分析方法、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验对辽宁省的能源消耗和经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析后发现:能源消耗与经济增长两者之间存在长期动态关系;当两个变量的短期波动与长期均衡发生偏离时,非均衡状态将被拉回到均衡状态;能源消耗对经济增长具有单向格兰杰因果关系。研究结果意味着辽宁省要保持经济的持续稳定增长,必须要有充足的能源供应作为有力保障,但近几年来辽宁省的能源供给和经济增长之间的矛盾日益突出,故辽宁省应该从能源需求和能源供给两个方面出发,通过强化节能意识、调整能源结构、提高能源利用效率和加强科技节能研发力度等来进行节能减耗。

Liaoning Province is a large energy-consumption province,whose economic growth depends largely on energy consumption.This article applies cointegration analysis,error correction model and granger causality test.The results find that there is a long-term dynamic relationship between energy consumption and economic growth;ECM pulls back the non-equilibrium state to the equilibrium state by(-0.052759) when two variable's short-term fluctuation deviates long-term's balance;there is a unidirectional granger causal relation from energy consumption to economic growth.The results indicate that the steady and fast economic growth in Liaoning depends on the adequate supply of energy resources.However,the contradiction between energy supply and economic growth in recent years has been increasingly prominent in recent years.In order to save energy,Liaoning Province,therefore,from the energy demand and energy supply,need to strengthen the awareness of energy conservation,adjust the energy structure,improve energy efficiency,and enhance scientific and technological research.