捕获-再捕获方法在估计居民全死因死亡漏报率中的应用

Application of the Capture-recapture Method in Estimating Resident Mortality of the Missing Report in Hefei

目的应用捕获-再捕获方法(CMR)评价合肥市居民死因登记报告的质量,校正常规监测居民死亡率。方法采用分层随机抽样法,对抽取的51,504人调查人口死亡情况,再与同期监测系统所报告的死亡资料进行核对,计算漏报率以及总体死亡率的95%可信区间(CI)。结果 2007～2009年3年的报告死亡率分别为2.89%、3.34%、3.86%,校正报告死亡率分别为4.17%、4.76%和4.75%。结论使用捕获-再捕获方法可以校正死亡率,适时开展漏报调查可有效弥补常规监测的不足。

Objective To assess the quality of death cause reports and revise the routine monitoring of resident mortality by the Capture-Recapture Method (CMR). Methods By the stratified random sampling, 51,504 population were surveyed for death causes.The results were compared with the data from the Death Cause Surveillance System in the same period.The missing report rate and 95% Confidence Interval ( 95%CI) of total mortality were computed. Results The reports of mortality were 2.89%,3.34%,3.86% respectively in the three years of 2007-2009. The corrected mortality rate reports were 4.17‰, 4.76‰,and 4.75% respectively. Conclusion The Capture-Recapture Method can be used to correct mortality. Timely investigation of missing reports can effectively make up for the deficiency of conventional monitoring.