资源衰退下的我国海洋捕捞业产量增长——基于1956年-2011年渔业数据的实证分析

The Growth of the Production of China's Marine Fishing Industry under the Condition of Resource Recession——An Empirical Analysis Based on the 1956-2011 Fisheries Data

自1980年代以来,资源衰退就成为制约我国海洋捕捞业可持续发展的难题。现存研究大多以资源衰退为既定前提,讨论如何通过渔业监管和制度创新破解海洋捕捞业的困境,而很少有从渔业数据入手,分析资源衰退的根源。1956年至2011年渔业数据表明海洋捕捞量增长在不同时期存在明显差异,监管政策对海洋捕捞量具有实际影响,1995年以来主要捕捞品种的产量和排序保持相对稳定。渔业捕捞量和劳动力、机动渔船功率的回归分析表明:1980年代中期之前,海洋捕捞业基本是"公开准入"性质的,农村劳动力大量进入海洋捕捞业导致资源衰退;1980年代中期之后,海洋捕捞业监管加强,机动渔船功率上升形成的庞大捕捞能力是资源衰退的主因。在资源衰退下海洋捕捞业仍能长期保持高产量,且大多数渔业种群捕捞量呈持续增长状态,原因是技术进步、捕捞区域和捕捞品种的增进。

Since the 1980s,the resource recession has become the obstacle of the sustainable development of China's marine fishing industry.Most researches took resources recession as given condition under which the way to solve the plight of marine fishing industry by fisheries regulation and institutional innovation was studied.Meanwhile,little attention was paid to the data of the fishery to analyze the root causes of resource recession.The fishing industry data from 1956 to 2011show that marine catches growth was significantly different at different times,regulatory policies have practical implications on marine catches.Since 1995,the production and sorting of the main fishing species remained relatively stable.The regression analysis of fishing capacity,labor and power of motor fishing vessel showed that until the mid-1980s,the marine fishing industry was basically'open access'.The entering of a large number of rural labors into the marine fishing industry led to the resources recession;after the mid-1980s,the huge fishing capacity result from the strengthening of marine fishing industry regulation and the rising power of motor fishing vessel was the main cause of resource recession.Marine fishing industry still maintained a high yields in the long-run under conditions of resource recession and most catches of fish stocks kept sustained growth.This is due to the advances in technology and the increase of fishing areas and fishing species.