延伸期预报的思考及其应用研究进展

Consideration on Extended-Range Forecast and Its Application Study

10～30d延伸期预报是介于常规天气预报和短期气候预测之间的预报"缝隙",既是国际学术界关注的热点问题,又是当前预报决策服务的重要发展方向。近年来,我国诸多科研业务单位相继开展了延伸期预报研究及预报应用,并在业务实践中取得了一定效果。针对延伸期预报的可行性,本文就延伸期预报是什么,能否做,如何做,怎么评价,未来前景如何等方面的问题进行了思考和讨论。特别重点介绍了国内在进行延伸期预报业务试验方面的实际进展。在讨论如何为延伸期预报评分时,提出了预报时效应与预报精度相对应匹配的观点。

The 10—30 days' Extended-Range Forecast(ERF) is a forecasting ‘gap’ between conventional weather forecast and short-range climate prediction,which has attracted great attention from the academic community world-wide and has become an important development direction of the current forecast decision-making services.In recent years,a great number of departments of studies and operational work all over China have engaged in scientific research and forecasting application of the ERF and achieved some results in forecast practice.As for the feasibility of the extended-range forecast,this paper expounds on what the ERF is,whether or not there is a possibility to deal with it,how to carry it out and how to evaluate ERF.In addition,the future prospects of ERF are also thought about deeply and discussed.Specially,the actual progress of the forecast operational practice on ERF is highlighted.Finally,for readers’ reference,a point of view is proposed that the forecasting range and accuracy should match each other in the ERF evaluation.