摘要
10~30d延伸期预报是介于天气预报和短期气候预测之间的一个预报期,近年来已成为国际上天气—气候无缝隙预报体系的一个重要发展方向.基于Madden Julian Oscil ation (MJO)为主的大气低频振荡特征,我国和国际上的一些天气—气候预报中心在延伸期预报的研究和应用中取得了一定的成果.从MJO的基本特征出发,基于MJO与天气气候联系的最新研究成果,重点介绍利用MJO开展实时监测和延伸期预报应用进展,主要包括:MJO的延伸期预报;MJO在延伸期强降水、台风、寒潮及灾害预估中的业务应用.最后对MJO在延伸期预报应用中的发展趋势进行了展望.
10—30d extended-range forecast(ERF) is a forecast 'seam' between traditional weather forecast and short-term climate prediction.It has become an important research direction for the development of international weather-climate seamless forecast system in the last decades.Some national or international weather-climate forecast centers have made preliminary achievements on ERF research and application based on MJO.In this paper,according to latest studies related to associations between MJO and weather or climate,starting from basic features of MJO,development of MJO monitoring and ERF application are chiefly introduced.The developments mainly include: ERF of MJO and operational application of MJO in ERF of heavy rainfall,typhoon,cold wave and disasters.Finally,this paper discusses the developing trend of ERF based on MJO in the future.
出处
《气象科技进展》
2013年第1期31-38,共8页
Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006020-04-01)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41205060)
973项目(SQ2011CB046594)
关键词
MJO
延伸期预报
强降水
台风
寒潮
灾害
MJO,extended-range forecast,heavy rainfall,typhoon,cold wave,disaster
