多时间尺度气候变化

Climate Change of Multiple Timescales

区域气候变化受到了滞后于规则和非规则强迫的日循环、年循环、年际、十年际、年代际和世纪等多时间尺度气候自然变化分量的影响。在20世纪,全球平均气温变化大部分属于自然的气候变化,还有一小部分属于人类活动对区域和城市气候变化的影响。21世纪之交的一个暖平台形成于多个时间尺度自然气候变化中暖位相的叠加。对年代际全球平均气温起调节作用的分量可能来自季风范围的变化。

@@@@A regional climate change consists of many components of the regular (periodic) and irregular forcing from diurnal cycle, annual cycle, inter-annual, decadal, inter-decadal and centennial timescales while every component is phase-lagged in its force. In the twentieth century, most of the global temperature increase belongs to the natural climate variability, and there is a small part of human activity impacts on regional and urban climate changes. Early in this century, a warm flat was the overlap of several temperature components. On the inter-decadal timescale, regulating global-mean temperature variation is associated with the expansion of monsoon domain.