气候变化对中国经济系统的影响及评估方法评述

Impact and Its Assessment Methods of Climate Change on the Economic System of China

基于经济学的视角,通过搜集气候变化对经济系统各方面的影响与评估方法研究的相关文献,发现我国气候显著的区域特征、经济系统的复杂性,导致我国不同地区、不同行业受到气候变化影响的因素和程度皆有所不同。目前研究气候变化经济影响的方法主要有以模型为依据的经验统计法、自然机理法和经济机理法以及其他非模型法。经济机理法是本文研究方法的分析重点,主要有成本效益法、生产函数法和均衡分析法。通过评价发现,经济机理法研究气候变化经济影响的局限性在于模型的动态模拟和对气候变化的长期预估能力,这两方面亟需改进。

Against the background of global climate change, we use the thinking pattern of economic analysis with large numbers of literature about the impact of climate change on the economic system and their assessment methods, only to find that the influences of climate change on different regions and different trades are different, because of our country’s climate geographical characters and economic complexity. Nowadays, assessment methods of climate change on the economic system could be divided into Model Analysis such as Empirical Statistical Analysis (ESA), Natural Mechanism Analysis (NMA) and Economic Mechanism Analysis (EMA) and Model-independent analysis. EMA is the key point to be analyzed in this paper, which is combined with Cost- benefitApproach, Production Function Method and EquilibriumAnalysis Method. Finally, we find that what we need to do next with the assessment research is to improve the dynamic analysis and long-term estimate ability of our models.